WAITING PATIENTLY STARS AND OUR DUKE IS BACK…BUT IS IT ALL TOO CLOSE TO CHELTENHAM?!

WAITING PATIENTLY FULFILLS HIS POTENTIAL

I’ll confess to not being one to get too into stories involved in racing, but even I found it hard not to feel the soul stirring as CUE CARD (166) rolled back the years and led the Ascot Chase field a merry dance by setting a brutal pace.  Even then it was perhaps even more heart-warming to see WAITING PATIENTLY (169) come and win the race for Ruth Jefferson who has taken over the licence from the late Malcolm Jefferson.  Waiting Patiently had previously clocked a good time at Kempton in eye-catching style, and duly delivered on the potential of that performance here.

The novice chase on the card was run at a farcically slow pace so I’ve just put up the sectionals with Regal Encore in the three mile handicap by way of comparison:

Regal Encore

Waiting Patiently

Difference

34.3

33.59

-0.71

44.63

44.04

-0.59

55.89

54.88

-1.01

67.8

66.1

-1.7

96.76

94.14

-2.62

112.93

109.99

-2.94

155.48

150.92

-4.56

167.45

162.67

-4.78

185.36

180.28

-5.08

198.71

193.68

-5.03

233.08

226.99

-6.09

243.68

236.78

-6.9

254.89

247.32

-7.57

266.71

258.35

-8.36

293.15

284.74

-8.41

307.75

300.04

-7.71

321.61

315.49

-6.12

 As you can see from the above, Waiting Patiently got to the fence two out 8.41s quicker than Regal Encore did in the longer handicap.  This pace told on the run in as he came home 2.29s slower, but even allowing for this and the shorter distance this was still an excellent performance from the winner.  He loomed up travelling well behind Cue Card on the run-in and won the race fairly convincingly.

He has now been shortened for the Ryanair Chase, though connections seem reluctant to commit to that race at this stage.  To be honest, I’m inclined to agree with them.  For starters, regardless of how easily he seemed to travel in this race, this was still run at a frenetic pace on soft ground and will have left its mark on the horses.  With just three and a half weeks to go to the Ryanair that has to be a concern.  The long term plan seems to be the King George and that looks perfectly sensible to me.  He’s already won at Kempton, and his ability to travel well off this pace here over 2m5f suggests three miles at Kempton should prove no bother to him.  He’s undoubtedly one of the stars of the jump game now, and considering he is still only seven there may be more to come yet.

CUE CARD (166) showed something like his former self here and by setting a brutal pace was able to use his latent stamina to see of his rivals.  He also benefitted from the soft ground here but I’d be worried about him going forward.  For starters, as with the winner, this effort will have left its mark and perhaps even more so in his case as he was no doubt trained for this day.  I’ve heard some people say this was a career best for Cue Card but that is a laughable statement, as I make it about 20lbs below his optimum.  I think it’s probably best just to see this run as being able to appreciate seeing him one more time in something resembling his old self!

Considering how savage this race was, I’d be worried about some of the other horses in behind with their Cheltenham prospects in mind.  Perhaps it was no bad thing to see CONEY ISLAND (?) pulled up early on, as he made jumping errors and just couldn’t live with the pace being set.  A similar thing happened on his previous start, but with only one realistic rival and the ensuing pace collapse that rival saw he was able to overcome losing ground that day.  On this occasion there were top class two and a half milers and stayers who could live with the pace, and he wasn’t able to get back into the race.  It looks to me as if three miles plus will be on the agenda for him now.

OUR DUKE BACK TO HIS BEST

There was an intriguing clash in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran which saw OUR DUKE (168) give weight and a beating to the highly touted novice chaser PRESENTING PERCY (160).  Strangely, for two horses perceived as stayers and potentially unsuited by the drop back to 2.5m here, it was their pace in the latter stages that was impressive!

Some Neck

Our Duke

Tongie

13.19

12.77

12.44

24.75

24.2

23.18

86.92

86.91

84.33

100.91

101.21

98.26

115.71

116.06

113.08

130.8

131.39

128.73

147.66

148.58

147.59

197.04

199.05

201.23

208.88

210.4

212.45

219.37

220.24

222.53

232.69

232.97

235.73

 As you can see the overall time for the sections timed from the first jump in the two mile race saw a similar overall time to Some Neck in the beginners chase.  But when we drill into things a bit deeper we can see that they went a slower pace in the Red Mills.

Some Neck

Our Duke

Tongie

197.04

199.05

201.23

35.65

33.92

34.5

 The above shows the times taken to get to three out and then from there to the line.  As you can see, Our Duke was 2s behind at three out, but fairly motored home to the line 1.73s quicker.  When I adjust for this and tie in the comparison with the shorter handicap I give Our Duke a figure of 168.  This isn’t far off some of his stellar runs from last season (earnt 174) and suggests that he is starting to fire again.

However, enthusiasm is tempered somewhat as this race was run in bad ground and the front two got into a fair old battle to the line.  With just three and a half weeks to Cheltenham that isn’t ideal and I’d be worried about this race leaving its mark on both of them.

PRESENTING PERCY (160) comes out on the same figure I gave him for his last chase win.  Interestingly, I had his Pertemps Hurdle success at 158, and whilst he looks to be a good staying novice chaser, I’m not sure he’s as great as everyone seems to be building him up to be. Usually when horses keep hitting the same sort of mark that tends to be how good they are.  Now he may step up massively on better ground at Cheltenham, but with the tough race here I’m keen to take him on in the RSA.

DON’T UNDERESTIMATE SOME NECK AND UP FOR REVIEW

As you saw from the previous sectionals, SOME NECK (156) ran a fine time in his own right, with UP FOR REVIEW (152) setting a decent pace before finishing second.  Both horses have had their problems and were coming here off long layoffs and assuming they can hold their form after this run they are both of interest to me going forward.  They didn’t quite have the pace of Our Duke or Presenting Percy in the latter stages of their race, but they had gone quicker here and I wonder whether both will come into their own when upped to three miles.  They are worth keeping in mind anyway as they seem to have been slightly overlooked with some of the other performances from the weekend taking centre stage.

Their overall time was actually slightly quicker, but I’ve made a meaningful adjustment for the way Our Duke came home from two out, and hence arrive at a lower figure for both Some Neck and Up For Review.  In essence, they were able to clock a similar time as they went quicker early on!  But their runs were still good on the clock, and I think both of them are of interest going forward.

I WOULDN’T SPEND £20K TO SUPPLEMENT ELGIN FOR THE CHAMPION HURDLE

Each to their own obviously with what they do with their money, but it seems strange to me to pull a horse out of a race and then plan to stump up a large supplementary fee a few weeks later!  But that is apparently going to be the plan with ELGIN (153) who won the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in a good time.  But it was bang in line with some of his previous efforts this season and I’m not sure I’d be rushing to splash the cash to supplement him for the Champion.

Breaking Ground

Elgin

Fortunate George

Embole

25.77

24.14

24.9

26.04

87.38

81.18

86.14

89.43

114.25

105.51

113.12

117.3

128.96

119.2

127.81

131.91

189.15

176.78

189.1

189.95

212.38

199.53

214.18

212.82

227.35

215.03

230.12

227.97

 On the clock this rated a figure of 153 for Elgin which is in line with figures I’ve given him this season (best of 155).  As you can see his overall time from the first was way quicker than anything else on the card, but it was the only race run at any meaningful gallop.

Breaking Ground

Elgin

Fortunate George

Embole

189.15

176.78

189.1

189.95

38.2

38.25

41.02

38.02

 The above shows the splits to and from three out, and it shows just how much quicker they went in the Kingwell.  Elgin did well to still come home in similar time to the other races but they were relatively lowly affairs (Breaking Ground was winning off a mark of 81) and with all the comparisons I just get a similar figure for Elgin as before.

Now it goes without saying that this is an open Champion Hurdle behind the favourite, and I guess with him probably going up to 155 after this connections are thinking of going for the Grade 1 rather than a handicap.  But it does rather beg the question of why they pulled him out of the race in the first place!  I’ve got all the likely runners in the Champion ahead of Elgin and with his seeming preference for soft ground I must admit I’d be reluctant to part with £20k to go for the Champion Hurdle.  He could well hit the frame and earn a bit of cash for connections, but he’s not on my radar for the race.

CH’TIBELLO (146) was a horse I was keen on for last years Champion Hurdle at a big price each way, after he posted figures around 160 in the run up to the race.  Unfortunately he met with a setback on the morning of the race and given he didn’t reappear until mid-December last year I wonder whether he has had a few niggles beyond that.  His runs this season have seen him earn figures of 145,141 and 146 and I just wonder if he’s not the same horse this time round. That’s a stone below what I think he’s capable of.  Better ground could see a renaissance of some description but I think I’ll leave him alone when bad each way plans are being made this time round.

LE PATRIOTE ADVERTISES THE LANZAROTE FORM EVEN MORE

I confess to being puzzled time and time again when handicap marks are given or adjusted.  Plenty of novices seem to be let in lightly on handicap debuts, and at the other end of the scale some handicappers get absolutely clobbered for winning races in poor times.  However, the way William Henry has been only put up 6lbs for winning this year’s Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the biggest head scratchers I can recall!  The form of the race was advertised again at Ascot with LE PATRIOTE (137) winning a handicap hurdle in fine style.

Point Of Principle

Le Patriote

Ballyheighue Bay

11.15

10.73

10.54

56.19

55.34

54.74

72.01

70.67

71.03

121.68

119.84

120.13

139.78

137.96

138.42

203.8

198.66

201.68

213.43

208.61

212.33

253

248.42

255.7

267.2

262.16

271.5

282.39

277.45

288.83

 The merits of the performance are evidenced in the sectionals above that show the strength of the run on the clock when compared to the other two races on the card.  This earns the winner a mark of 137 from me, and considering he was winning this off a mark of 127 it’ll be interesting to see how he is reassessed.  He has been well backed on his three starts since moving from France and clearly shows plenty at home.

The main take out for me from this race though was that William Henry has to go close in the Coral Cup.  I rated him 160 in the Lanzarote, and he is currently 151.  I don’t often get involved in Cheltenham handicaps antepost with no extra places on offer but with James Bowen likely riding I struggle to see how this horse doesn’t go very close on the day.

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